Mark Zuckerberg’s strategic overtures to President Donald Trump, including a $1 million donation to his inaugural fund and public support during the 2024 election, have unraveled spectacularly as Meta Platforms Inc. faces a pivotal antitrust trial led by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). A YouTube video by TheQuartering, titled “Mark Zuckerberg Bet Big On Trump And Ended Up Getting Screwed,” posted on April 16, 2025, captures the growing sentiment that Zuckerberg’s political gamble has backfired, leaving Meta vulnerable to a potential breakup of its social media empire. With the FTC seeking to divest Instagram and WhatsApp, the trial, now underway in Washington, D.C., underscores the risks of aligning with a volatile administration while navigating one of the most consequential antitrust battles in tech history.

The Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms trial, which began on April 14, 2025, before U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, accuses Meta of illegally acquiring Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 to stifle competition and maintain a monopoly in personal social networking. The FTC argues that Meta’s “buy-or-bury” strategy violated the Sherman Antitrust Act, citing a 2012 email from Zuckerberg that described acquiring Instagram to “neutralize a potential competitor,” as reported by Reuters. Instagram, which generates over half of Meta’s $1.3 trillion U.S. ad revenue per eMarketer, and WhatsApp, with billions of daily users, are central to the company’s dominance. A breakup could disrupt Meta’s ecosystem, limit cross-platform features, and reshape the social media landscape.

Zuckerberg’s alignment with Trump was a calculated move to secure favorable regulatory conditions. Posts on X, including @shell_loyd’s “Zuckerberg LOSES Big After Betting On Trump,” highlight the narrative of betrayal, with users like @toddxz and @oszczudlak sharing the YouTube video to underscore Meta’s predicament. In late 2024, Zuckerberg donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, appointed Trump allies like Sean Spicer to Meta’s board, and made multiple White House visits, per The New York Times. These actions followed Meta’s shift from its 2020 election content moderation, which Trump criticized as censorship. Zuckerberg’s public praise of Trump’s resilience after a July 2024 assassination attempt, reported by Bloomberg, further signaled a rapproachment, contrasting with his earlier tensions with the Biden administration.

The FTC trial, however, has dashed hopes of leniency. Initiated in 2020 under Trump’s first term and revived by then-FTC Chair Lina Khan, the case survived Meta’s motions to dismiss in 2022 and 2024. Khan’s ouster in January 2025, replaced by Trump appointee Andrew Ferguson, initially raised expectations of a softer stance, with Politico noting Ferguson’s willingness to follow “lawful orders.” Yet, Ferguson’s commitment to the trial, as stated in a Bloomberg interview, suggests no reprieve for Meta. X user @TholmesH framed Zuckerberg’s support as a miscalculation, writing, “Potential Criminal Mark Zuckerberg Bet Big On Convicted Felon Trump And Ended Up Getting Screwed.” The sentiment reflects broader distrust, recalling Zuckerberg’s $3.7 billion wealth drop post-2016 election, as noted by @roycan79 and @FFT1776.

The trial’s core issue is whether Meta’s acquisitions suppressed competition. The FTC defines the relevant market as “personal social networking,” encompassing Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, but excluding TikTok and YouTube, which focus on content broadcasting. Under this framing, Meta holds a dominant share, with The Verge reporting that the FTC cites Zuckerberg’s emails as evidence of intent to eliminate rivals. Meta counters that it operates in a broader, competitive social media landscape, including TikTok, X, and Snapchat, with Zuckerberg testifying that TikTok’s rise slowed Meta’s growth, per The Washington Post. A 2025 Quartz analysis estimates Meta’s market share at under 30% when including TikTok, challenging the FTC’s monopoly claims.

Legal experts are divided. Vanderbilt’s Rebecca Allensworth, quoted in The Verge, called the FTC’s case “strong” due to evidence of Meta’s anticompetitive intent, but cautioned that the narrow market definition could falter. Paul Swanson of Holland & Hart, speaking to PBS News, noted the difficulty of applying 19th-century antitrust laws to dynamic tech markets, especially with TikTok’s emergence. Judge Boasberg, who dismissed the FTC’s initial 2021 complaint for lacking evidence, expressed skepticism in a November 2024 ruling, warning that the case “strains antitrust precedents,” per WIRED. A Meta victory could shield past acquisitions from scrutiny, while an FTC win might force the first major corporate breakup since AT&T in 1984, per Business Insider.

Zuckerberg’s political pivot has drawn intense criticism. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, posting on X, accused Zuckerberg of “lobbying Trump to settle the FTC’s lawsuit,” tying the donation to regulatory favors. This echoes historical tensions, with Breitbart reporting a $3.7 billion loss for Zuckerberg after Trump’s 2016 win due to perceived liberal bias. Meta’s 2024 election neutrality, including amplifying pro-Trump voices, was seen as an olive branch, but Trump’s refusal to intervene—evidenced by his rehiring of Khan’s legal team, per CNN—has left Zuckerberg exposed. The Independent suggests Trump’s team views Meta’s dominance as a liability, aligning with populist calls to curb Big Tech.

The trial’s implications extend beyond Meta. Instagram’s $37.13 billion in projected 2025 U.S. ad revenue, per Adweek, and WhatsApp’s data-driven growth make divestiture a high-stakes prospect. NPR warns that a breakup could disrupt user experiences, like cross-posting, and weaken safety tools, though it might foster innovation by allowing independent platforms to thrive. Witnesses, including Zuckerberg, Sheryl Sandberg, and TikTok executives, are testifying, with internal documents like a 2012 memo on “neutralizing” Instagram central to the FTC’s case, per Social Media Today. Meta argues its investments transformed both apps, benefiting consumers, as Zuckerberg noted in testimony about Instagram’s revenue model, per BBC.

Disney’s recent struggles offer a parallel. The studio’s Snow White flop, losing $115 million, led to the cancellation of a Tangled remake, per The Hollywood Reporter, reflecting audience rejection of perceived “woke” narratives. Similarly, Meta’s trial coincides with cultural debates over tech’s role in public discourse, with Forbes noting that Zuckerberg’s Trump alignment alienated some users while failing to secure regulatory relief. Disney’s pivot to original projects like Inside Out 3 mirrors Meta’s push into AI and the metaverse, but both face skepticism about their core businesses—Disney’s remakes and Meta’s social media dominance.

Meta’s financial health remains robust, with $31.7 billion in 2023 ad revenue, per YouTube’s Wikipedia page, but the trial’s uncertainty has rattled investors. Wedbush cut Meta’s stock target from $770 to $680, per Mathrubhumi, reflecting fears of a breakup. The Wall Street Journal reports that Meta’s streaming ventures, like Facebook Watch, lag behind YouTube’s 2.7 billion monthly users, who watch over 1 billion hours daily, per BBC. The FTC’s case, bolstered by Google’s 2024 search monopoly loss, per Quartz, signals a tougher regulatory environment, with Politico noting bipartisan support for reining in Big Tech.

The trial, expected to last weeks, may enter a remedies phase if Meta loses, potentially involving data-sharing or divestiture overseen by a trustee, per NPR. A settlement remains possible, given Trump’s influence over Ferguson, but CNN suggests the administration sees political value in challenging tech giants. Forbes analyst Mark Hughes warned that a breakup could “reshape the communication ecosystem,” impacting Meta’s 3.9 billion monthly active users, per Social Media Today.

Zuckerberg’s miscalculation underscores the perils of political alignment in a polarized era. The FTC trial, far from the reprieve he sought, threatens to dismantle Meta’s empire, with Instagram and WhatsApp hanging in the balance. As TheQuartering’s video and X posts like @EmeraldRhyme’s reflect, public sentiment has turned against Zuckerberg, framing him as a tycoon outmaneuvered by Trump’s unpredictability. Whether Meta can preserve its dominance or faces a historic reckoning will define not only its future but also the broader tech industry’s regulatory landscape. For now, Zuckerberg’s bet on Trump has proven a costly misstep, with the courtroom as the final arbiter.