A movie trend makes it so that if Deadpool & Wolverine meets its projected box office opening, the Marvel Cinematic Universe movie is a near guarantee to cross the $1 billion mark. Over the years, the MCU became famous for delivering a slew of hits that passed the coveted $1 billion mark. Towards the end of the Infinity Saga, it almost became the norm for Marvel Studios, which contributed to many forgetting just how hard it is to achieve such a mark. With many of the MCU’s best movies staying behind in the Infinity Saga, the franchise has faltered recently.

The Multiverse Saga has been criticized. With many new projects being released in a short time span, the MCU’s quality has been diluted, with multiple issues between movies and series. However, Marvel still managed to have some exciting hits in the Multiverse Saga. Chief among those is 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which nearly crossed the $2 billion mark and has become one of the MCU’s highest-grossing films. With a similar plot device to the Spider-Man film, Deadpool & Wolverine‘s story could make the film the first $1 billion MCU hit in years, and its projected opening helps that goal.

Deadpool & Wolverine Is Projected For $200m+ Domestic Debut

The MCU Movie Has Already Broken Records

Deadpool & Wolverine is set to be another box office juggernaut for Marvel Studios. The MCU movie is breaking records left and right. Besides being the MCU’s first R-rated film, breaking a major trend in the franchise, and staying true to Deadpool’s strongest aspects, the upcoming film has generated anticipation like Marvel has not seen in years. Deadpool & Wolverine‘s first trailer broke the record for most views for a movie trailer within 24 hours with 365 million total views. Interestingly, Deadpool & Wolverine took first place from Spider-Man: No Way Home, the MCU’s latest $1 billion earner.

Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman’s return project as Deadpool and Wolverine has also broken ticket sales records. According to Fandango, Deadpool & Wolverine broke the record for best first-day ticket sales of the year. The MCU movie also takes first place in the Deadpool franchise, as Deadpool & Wolverine achieved the status of the best first-day pre-seller among the Deadpool movies. Deadpool & Wolverine‘s ticket sales are doing as great as expected, with the return of popular characters and the movie being Marvel’s only in 2024 helping it. Deadpool & Wolverine‘s positive box office projections have also been revealed.

According to Deadline, Deadpool & Wolverine is tracking early to earn $200-$239 million in its domestic box office opening weekend — with the added caveat that the projections are said to be conservative. If the MCU movie’s opening weekend fits into the reported range, Deadpool & Wolverine would have the highest-grossing debut of any R-rated movie ever. Reynolds’ original Deadpool currently holds that record with a $132.4 million domestic opening, which the MCU movie would easily obliterate if all goes as expected. The projected opening weekend would also mean that Deadpool & Wolverine is well on its way to $1 billion.

A Major Box Office Trend Makes Deadpool & Wolverine’s $1 Billion More Likely

The Deadpool Threequel’s Projected Opening Weekend Fits A Trend

If Deadpool & Wolverine‘s domestic opening weekend comes in over the $200 million mark, then the movie is all but guaranteed to become the MCU’s latest $1 billion hit. That is because of a long-running movie trend. There have been eight movies in history to have a domestic opening weekend of $200 million or more (via Box Office Mojo). Of those films, Marvel Studios’ Black Panther and Star Wars: The Last Jedi were the two with the lowest total box office at the end of their theatrical runs; however, even those films managed to exceed the $1 billion mark.

Black Panther and Star Wars: The Last Jedi ended their box office runs at the $1.3 billion mark. The other six movies to debut with more than $200 million domestically all finished with box office totals that range from $1.5 billion to Avengers: Endgame‘s massive $2.8 billion. Since Deadline mentioned that the $200-$239 million projected domestic opening weekend for Deadpool & Wolverine is conservative, the fact that the movie could do even better than that makes its chances of passing the $1 billion mark very likely. Deadpool & Wolverine would join a popular R-rated movie.

The Box Office Trend Would Make Deadpool & Wolverine The Highest-Grossing R-Rated Movie Of All Time

Another Comic Book Movie Holds The Top Spot

Only one R-rated movie has passed the $1 billion mark. While the original Deadpool and its sequel established box office records for R-rated films, they were both surpassed by another comic book movie. DC managed to take first place among R-rated movies with 2019’s Joker, which achieved both box office and critical success, as Joaquin Phoenix took home the Best Actor Oscar for his portrayal of the Joker. Last year, director Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer got close to the coveted mark, but with the biopic ending at $976 million, Deadpool & Wolverine could become the second $1 billion R-rated hit.

Based on its projected opening weekend and the box office trend for movies that open with more than $200 million domestically, a possible $1.3 billion run at least for Deadpool & Wolverine would crown it the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time, passing Joker by at least $230 million. A battle between the two franchises could be fought for that coveted place, as DC will release Joker: Folie à Deux in October. However, the fact that the Joker sequel is a musical could push its box office down, allowing Deadpool & Wolverine to become the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever.

Deadpool & Wolverine’s Similarities To The MCU’s Last $1B Movie Are Great For Its Box Office Chances

The Multiverse Is Ripe With Potential

The latest Marvel movie to gross over $1 billion was Spider-Man: No Way Home. The movie fell short of the $2 billion mark, though Tom Holland’s third Spider-Man flick was not released in China, which affected that possible box office milestone. That is a problem Deadpool & Wolverine will not have, as the MCU’s only 2024 movie has been cleared for a release in China, one of the most important box office markets in the world. Like Spider-Man: No Way Home, Deadpool & Wolverine has built anticipation centered on its multiversal story.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was an event like no other, uniting the three cinematic Spider-Men and villains from Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield’s Spider-Man movies in the MCU. Deadpool & Wolverine is bringing back several actors from the Deadpool, X-Men, and Fox Marvel movies in general, among both confirmed and rumored cameos. Besides, the movie will see Hugh Jackman’s first time as Wolverine since 2017’s Logan and brings Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool to the MCU for good. With the film presented as a cinematic event, Deadpool & Wolverine has all the pieces to become the MCU’s latest $1 billion hit.