With the movie still just over a month away, early box office projections are coming in for the live-action Snow White remake, and are in the middle of the pack. Golden Globe winner Rachel Zegler is leading the ensemble cast for the film in the titular role, with the story now seeing Snow as the daughter of a king who was usurped by Gal Gadot’s Evil Queen, and, after escaping from her castle, plots to reclaim the kingdom with the help of seven magical creatures. Helmed by Marc Webb, the Snow White remake garnered lots of controversy during its production.

Despite its controversies, as reported by Deadline, the early box office projections for Snow White are proving modest as of now. Zegler’s live-action remake is currently on track for a $63-70 million domestic opening weekend, as reported by both Quorum and the publication’s own sources. This would effectively mark Zegler’s highest-grossing opening weekend to date, with the current record being held by Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes‘ $44.6 million.

What This Means For Disney’s Snow White

It’s Falling Right In The Middle Of The Studio’s Recent Remakes

While a $63-70 million haul is a modest figure, if it does prove more concrete upon Snow White‘s March 20 release, it’s not a great sign for the movie’s final box office tally. Reports are currently varying on the movie’s final budgetary figures, though it’s been reported that the film could have cost upward of $269 million. When factoring in marketing and theatrical release costs, which typically are about 2.5 times the production budget, that would put the movie’s break-even point at about $673 million.

If to look at how Snow White‘s opening compares to other live-action Disney remakes, it would put Zegler’s film right in the middle of the bunch, particularly when not factoring in sequels or prequels. In addition to being the lowest since Tim Burton’s Dumbo, it would also be a continuation of the genre’s downward trend at the box office, with most titles falling well shy of the $90-100 million range that early remakes enjoyed in their opening weekends. See how Snow White‘s opening box office projections compare to other recent Disney remakes and adaptations in the chart below:

Title
Opening Weekend Domestic Box Office
Final Global Box Office Tally

Maleficent
$69.4 Million
$758.4 Million

Cinderella
$67.9 Million
$542.4 Million

The Jungle Book
$103.3 Million
$966.6 Million

Alice Through the Looking Glass
$33.5 Million
$299.5 Million

Beauty and the Beast
$174.8 Million
$1.27 Billion

Dumbo
$46 Million
$353.3 Million

Aladdin
$91.5 Million
$1.05 Billion

The Lion King
$191.8 Million
$1.66 Billion

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
$36.9 Million
$491.7 Million

Cruella
$26.5 Million
$233.5 Million

The Little Mermaid
$118.8 Million
$569.6 Million

Mufasa: The Lion King
$35.4 Million
$654.5 Million

Snow White
$63-70 Million (projected)
N/A

Barring Cruella, which had a simultaneous theatrical and Disney+ Premiere release due to the COVID-19 pandemic, most other Disney live-action remakes in the same opening weekend range as Snow White fell well short of $600 million. Though Mufasa: The Lion King‘s box office saw a gradual rise after a slow start, eventually overtaking Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and becoming a success, Snow White might not fare as well, particularly after the movie’s various controversies stymied anticipation for Zegler’s remake.

Our Take On Disney’s Snow White Box Office Chances

A Quiet Release Weekend Could Boost Its Chances

Despite the various hurdles facing the movie, I do still believe there is a chance that the live-action Snow White remake could find its way to being a box office success. As previously noted, Mufasa: The Lion King was able to ride on its positive audience word of mouth to become a success, and given Zegler’s film has a generally quiet opening release weekend, only going up against the Robert De Niro-led Alto Knights, the family demographic can put their full focus into the next Disney remake, should they want to.

Source: Deadline