As the Mockingjay flies, this is interesting stuff.

Disney’s new spin on Snow White is a little over a month away from opening, which means that the 2025 movie has crept into that range of time where opening estimates start to pop up. The upcoming live-action Disney remake starring Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot has had a rocky road to the big screen, and its chances of success are in doubt, depending on who you ask.

However, this is the internet, and other commenters have noted a factor we may want to keep in mind as we make our way to March’s releases. Because let’s face it, when you’re in a chapter of The Hunger Games, the odds tend to be in your favor.

Snow White Could Be A Career High For Rachel Zegler

Leave it to the people of Reddit to take the box office report issued by Deadline, and give us some interesting points to discuss surrounding director Marc Webb’s movie. Our first point comes from the poster in question, “chanma50,” who provided some further insight from The Quorum. At the time of publication, current estimates have Snow White on track for a 3-day opening of $63-70 million. For the House of Mouse, that might seem dismal, but for Rachel Zegler, that’d be pretty amazing. The post reads:

Quorum reports a 3-day start for the Marc Webb directed movie of $63M-$70M while other sources believe $65M at this point in time is fair. As a comp, the 2014 Angelina Jolie Sleeping Beauty live-action spinoff opened to $69.4M back in early summer 2014. At that level, it would rep the highest domestic opening for the Golden Globe winning Zegler whose Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes ranks as the actress best opening at the B.O. with $44.6M. Awareness is solid among women over and under 35. In regards to those who are willing to pay to see the movie in a theater, women under 35 are first, followed by women over 35, and then men under 35 per Quorum.

For the West Side Story star, her career best at the moment is the $44.6 million brought in during the opening weekend of 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. Since fans are still hoping that we may see more of Zegler’s Lucy Gray Baird after those events, this sort of news could make that more likely to occur. Which is great, due to The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes’ ending leaving things where they did.

Although speaking of Rachel Zegler’s star power, it appears that there’s something else Snow White prognosticators will want to keep in mind. Which leads to another sign of the staying power for author Suzanne Collins’ continuing YA dystopian franchise, as well as how Disney+ subscription holders might view this would-be blockbuster.

(Image credit: Lionsgate)

If Snow White Does Flop, It Doesn’t Seem Like It’s Because Of Its Lead

Even in a month like March, there’s always a chance that something as big as Snow White, with relatively little competition, could “underperform” in the eyes of its home studio. And heading back to the Department of “Depends On Who You Talk To,” Rachel Zegler’s casting backlash might be a leading culprit for armchair detectives to cite as a cause of this hypothetical Disney flop.

Or at least, that seems to be the case if you aren’t a Hunger Games fan. Which brings up this comment from user “Sellin3164”:

Well for most people, it hasn’t been a bother. I find a lot of people in my circles not into film really adore Zegler due to Hunger Games.

With the potential for people to be into Rachel Zegler’s career, but not so much into Snow White, that does bring up what may be the most solid point. If this picture doesn’t seem to find its audience in theaters, it could be a sign that the property itself just isn’t of great interest to theatrical moviegoers.

Also, some viewers will probably admit very freely that they’d rather just wait for the film to stream on Disney+, so it doesn’t feel like as much of a gamble. So for all anyone knows, Snow White might become a huge streaming hit after the fact, much like Kevin Costner’s Horizon found its audience on Max.

No matter how you look at the matter, uncertainty does seem to reign. However, I’ll leave you all with one last, non-Hunger Games point of order that came up in that Reddit post. Several commenters did mention the recent sleeper success of Mufasa: The Lion King as a sign that Disney should never be counted out too soon. Considering the negative comments people had for that prequel effort, that’s a lesson we should definitely be learning in real-time.

While this opening weekend may not be mind blowing, the long game could be very kind to Rachel Zegler and her Disney princess era. March 21st is when we’ll see who’s right, as Snow White will sing her way into moviehouses on that very day.