Disney’s upcoming “Snow White” film has become arguably the most controversial release of 2025..

Plagued by reshoots, rewrites, poorly received trailers and, most importantly, a litany of offensive quotes from the film’s star, Rachel Zegler. At every opportunity, Zegler’s undermined her own project. She dismissed the original “Snow White” as outdated and irrelevant, with a love story that in her mind was, “weird.”

That would be the same “Snow White” that made Disney into the preeminent family entertainment studio that it was, until recently. The same “Snow White” that earned Walt Disney an honorary Oscar in 1939. After the 2024 election, Zegler went on an anti-Donald Trump rant on social media, before being forced to apologize.

It wasn’t just her; leaked set photos hit the internet in 2023, becoming an instant laughingstock. Instead of the traditional seven dwarfs, Disney cast what appeared to be seven modern, diverse Portland hipsters. Reactions were so vitriolic that the company pushed the film back to reconfiguring the dwarfs into CGI characters. Based on pre-release box office tracking, it’s not likely to help.

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 09: (L-R) Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot pose at the IMDb Official Portrait Studio during D23 2022 at Anaheim Convention Center on September 09, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Corey Nickols/Getty Images for IMDb)

‘Snow White’ Tracking Isn’t Looking Good For Disney

Per a Deadline Hollywood report, box office tracking firm Quorum suggests that the opening weekend for “Snow White” could wind up in the $63-$65 million range. For context, the Angelina Jolie film “Maleficent” opened to roughly $70 million…in 2014. Adjusted for inflation, $70 million then is over $92 million now.

So “Snow White” is tracking roughly $30 million below “Maleficent.” And it’s even worse considering the film’s budget.

As of November 2024, Disney admitted that the production budget had ballooned to nearly $270 million. That figure doesn’t account for marketing, which can often double the cost. Still, estimating a conservative $150 million marketing spend puts the total outlay at roughly $420 million. Movies need to double their cost to turn a profit, meaning Disney would need an opening weekend of at least $120 million to have even the slightest hope of reaching profitability.

It’s tracking for half that.

And even that tracking is likely to be optimistic. Tracking companies release box office estimates based on social media impressions, awareness, followers, and trailer views. But it doesn’t mean those impressions are positive. Or that awareness will translate to attendance. One of the highest quadrants of awareness, per Quorom, was in men under 35. Except that awareness in that demographic is likely due to the massive amount of negative publicity the film has received from YouTube-based reviewers like The Critical Drinker.

So the best case scenario for Disney is that “Snow White” comes nowhere close to the opening weekend the studio needs for the film to become profitable. The worst case scenario is that it doesn’t even come close to half that number.

Maybe don’t make bad movies, based on progressive messages, starring unpopular actresses.