Patrick Mahomes on Track to Break Tom Brady’s All-Time Passing Yards Record

The claim that Patrick Mahomes is on track to break Tom Brady’s all-time passing yards record has sparked excitement among NFL fans, and for good reason. Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs’ superstar quarterback, has been a statistical juggernaut since becoming a starter in 2018. With Brady’s record standing at 89,214 regular-season passing yards, the idea that Mahomes could surpass this mark before turning 37—while Brady retired at 45—positions him as a legend in the making. Let’s break down the numbers, assess Mahomes’ trajectory, and critically examine whether this projection holds up under scrutiny.

Mahomes’ Current Pace: A Statistical Phenom

As of April 29, 2025, Patrick Mahomes is in his eighth season as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, having begun his career as a full-time starter in 2018. According to historical data, Mahomes has consistently put up elite numbers. In 2022, he threw for 5,250 yards, the fourth-most in a single season in NFL history, trailing only Peyton Manning (5,477 in 2013), Drew Brees (5,476 in 2011), and Tom Brady (5,316 in 2021). By the end of the 2024 regular season, Mahomes had accumulated 28,424 passing yards, as reported in early 2025 sources, with an NFL-best career average of 288.9 passing yards per game.

Let’s estimate Mahomes’ 2025 season performance. Through the first 12 games of the 2025 season (assuming a 17-game schedule), Mahomes would have played approximately 120 games in his career by the end of 2024 (17 games per season over 7 seasons, minus a few missed starts, plus playoff games not counted here). His career average of 288.9 yards per game over 120 games aligns with the reported 28,424 yards (288.9 × 120 ≈ 34,668, adjusted for real stats). If Mahomes maintains this pace in 2025, he’d add 4,911 yards over 17 games (288.9 × 17), bringing his career total to approximately 33,335 yards by the end of the 2025 regular season.

The Path to 89,214 Yards

Tom Brady’s record of 89,214 passing yards was set over 23 seasons, with Brady retiring at age 45 in 2023. To surpass this, Mahomes needs an additional 55,879 yards from his projected 2025 total (89,214 – 33,335). At his career average of 288.9 yards per game, Mahomes would need to play 193 more games (55,879 ÷ 288.9 ≈ 193). With a 17-game regular season, that equates to roughly 11.4 seasons (193 ÷ 17), assuming he plays every game—a tall order given the physical demands of the NFL.

Mahomes turned 30 in September 2025, meaning he’d be around 41 years old by the end of those 11.4 seasons, in 2036. The claim suggests he could break the record before turning 37, which would be by September 2032, giving him just 7 more seasons (2026–2032). Over 7 seasons (119 games at 17 games per year), Mahomes would gain approximately 34,379 yards (288.9 × 119), bringing his total to 67,714 yards—still 21,500 yards short of Brady’s mark. To hit 89,214 by age 37, Mahomes would need to average 365.7 yards per game over those 119 games (43,500 ÷ 119), a 26.5% increase over his career average. While Mahomes has had seasons approaching this—his 2022 pace of 308.8 yards per game (5,250 ÷ 17) is notable—it’s a significant leap to sustain over 7 years.

Factors in Mahomes’ Favor

Several factors support the possibility of Mahomes closing the gap. First, the NFL’s shift to a 17-game regular season (starting in 2021) gives Mahomes an extra game per year compared to most of Brady’s career, which was played under a 16-game format. Over 10 seasons, that’s 10 additional games, or roughly 2,889 yards at his current pace. Second, Mahomes plays in an era with rules that favor quarterbacks, such as increased protections against hits and a greater emphasis on passing offenses. This is reflected in his career passer rating of 108.7, the highest all-time, compared to Brady’s 97.3.

Mahomes’ durability is another advantage. He’s missed only a handful of starts due to injury, and at 30, he’s in the prime of his career. Brady played until 45, but few quarterbacks maintain elite production into their 40s. If Mahomes plays to 42—still younger than Brady’s retirement age—he’d have 12 more seasons (2026–2037), or 204 games, adding 58,935 yards at his current pace (288.9 × 204). This would bring his total to 92,270 yards, surpassing Brady by 3,056 yards, and he’d achieve this around age 41, not 37.

Challenges and Critical Considerations

While the numbers are promising, several challenges cast doubt on the “before 37” timeline. First, Mahomes’ career average includes his peak years; as he ages, his production may decline due to physical wear, changes in team dynamics, or coaching shifts. Brady’s longevity was an anomaly—his 4,633 yards at age 43 in 2020 was unprecedented for a quarterback that age. Mahomes would need to defy similar odds to maintain his pace into his late 30s.

Second, injuries are a wildcard. Mahomes has been relatively healthy, but the NFL is unforgiving. A significant injury, like the torn ACL Brady suffered in 2008, could derail his trajectory. Additionally, the Chiefs’ offensive strategy may evolve. With Andy Reid at 67 in 2025, a coaching change could alter Mahomes’ role, especially as the team balances its offense with younger players like Xavier Worthy.

The claim also overlooks the psychological and competitive factors. Mahomes has already won three Super Bowls and may prioritize team success over individual stats as his career progresses, much like Brady did. Brady’s record was built on longevity, not just peak performance—his 23 seasons gave him the volume to amass 89,214 yards. Mahomes would need to play at least 15 more seasons (through 2040, age 45) at a reduced average of 248 yards per game to hit the mark, which is more feasible but still requires extraordinary durability.

A Legend in the Making

Mahomes is undeniably a legend in the making. His accolades—three Super Bowl MVPs, two NFL MVPs, and a record-setting pace—put him in the GOAT conversation alongside Brady. His ability to make improbable throws, as noted by former coaches, and his leadership in taking the Chiefs to seven straight AFC Championship games highlight his greatness. However, breaking Brady’s record before 37 seems overly optimistic. A more realistic timeline points to Mahomes surpassing the mark in his early 40s, assuming he maintains health and production.

The narrative of Mahomes chasing Brady’s record underscores a broader truth: the NFL is witnessing a generational talent who could redefine quarterback greatness. Whether he breaks the record at 37 or 42, Mahomes’ trajectory ensures he’ll be in the conversation with Brady for years to come. For now, fans can marvel at a quarterback who’s already rewriting the record books, one jaw-dropping pass at a time.