Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Elon Musk’s embrace of Donald Trump is poised to have a determinative effect on the Tesla, SpaceX and X boss’ empire.

Why it matters: As the world’s richest person, Musk is cozying up to someone who could soon become the world’s most powerful person for a second time.

Driving the news: Musk, who officially endorsed Trump after the former president survived an assassination attempt Saturday, is now planning to donate $45 million monthly to a super PAC supporting his campaign to return to the White House, the WSJ reported.

Follow the money: Musk’s empire was built with government support — and he has a vested interest in keeping it that way.

SpaceX has lucrative contracts with NASA.
Tesla — which landed a critical federal loan in its infancy to stay afloat — markets its EVs as qualifying for U.S. tax credits.
X benefits from a legal shield in the form of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protecting social media companies from liability for user content.

Yes, but: If government support is a reason for embracing Trump, Musk hasn’t said so.

Instead, he’s been focused largely on political issues like immigration and election integrity, often amplifying falsehoods, according to Politifact.

The intrigue: Where Musk might have the most vested interest in a Trump presidency is with the trajectory of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has hounded him for years over his promulgations on social media.

“The people who made him crazy [would] be gone,” University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon tells Axios. “For Musk, that’s the big appeal.”

What puzzles observers is that Trump’s policies could bludgeon Musk’s assets.

Trump has bashed EV incentives.
And the former president has called for a crackdown on trade with China, where Tesla has a significant presence. If China retaliates by hitting Tesla, it could be disastrous for Musk.

But by supporting Trump’s return to the White House, Musk may be in a position to guide policy in his preferred direction, especially on China, Gordon says.

“Certainly if there is a Trump administration, it will at least listen to Musk’s arguments,” Gordon says.

Reality check: It’s not just that Musk needs the government. The government needs Musk, too.

“Reliance goes two ways because without SpaceX, the government cost to put a pound in space goes back up,” Gordon adds. “It’s not like Musk has some big pork barrel thing going on here.”

Musk and the Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

The bottom line: Trump and Musk are closer than ever.