Elon Musk unveiled Tesla’s Cybertruck in 2019. Eager customers are still waiting for the vehicle.
Photo illustration by Victoria Ellis/Fortune; Original photo by Tesla (truck); Getty Images (Musk)

Christine Eichin knew she wanted a Cybertruck immediately. It was November 2019, and she was sitting in the audience at Tesla’s design center in Hawthorne, Calif. Onstage, Elon Musk, wearing a black leather jacket, had just unveiled the Cybertruck, Tesla’s eye-popping take on the pickup. A three-ton wedge of stainless steel, it looked, as Musk once put it, like “an armored personnel carrier from the future.” When the truck appeared through a cloud of smoke, “there was a moment of absolute silence in the room,” Eichin says. “It was so mind-boggling.” She went back to her hotel, and ordered her Cybertruck right away.

The event that day was memorable for its theatrics. Videos showed the Cybertruck’s body work resisting a bullet fired from a 9mm handgun. At the launch, one of Musk’s assistants took a sledgehammer to the doors to demonstrate their strength. They remained undented. In a moment that has gone down in automotive folklore, the assistant then threw a metal ball at the supposedly unbreakable windows, which promptly shattered. “Room for improvement” was Musk’s insouciant response.

But it wasn’t the stunts that impressed Eichin, a 66-year-old businesswoman from California. It was the specs. The Cybertruck could accelerate faster than a Porsche and pull 14,000 pounds. It had higher ground clearance than any truck on the market and a range of up to 500 miles. Eichin runs a travel consultancy that specializes in safaris, and has a fondness for backcountry road trips. Here was an electric truck that could deal with rough terrain and long-distance driving—and with a starting price of $39,900 it seemed like a bargain.

She wasn’t alone. Reserving a Cybertruck was cheap and easy. All it took was a deposit of $100 and you were on the list. So far, more than 1.7 million people have ordered one, making the Cybertruck the most coveted vehicle in the admittedly brief history of electric cars.

It is also the most elusive. More than three years and seven months have passed since Eichin placed her order. There is still no sign of her Cybertruck, and she has heard nothing from the company about when it will be delivered. Tesla initially said its first pickups would roll off the production line in 2021. Last week, Tesla unveiled what it said was the first Cybertruck produced at its factory in Austin. But the announcement met with skepticism from customers and industry observers, who regarded it as a publicity stunt ahead of an earnings call, rather than a sign that deliveries were imminent. (Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.)

A lot has changed since Musk first introduced the Cybertruck in 2019—including its price.

During Eichin’s wait, much has changed. Tesla has weathered two storms. One was triggered by supply-chain issues that made producing cars—let alone developing new models—difficult and contributed to a more than 60% decline in Tesla’s market cap between November 2021 and December 2022. (The share price has since recovered some of those losses.) Elon Musk created the other maelstrom himself. His erratic performance as the owner and CEO of Twitter, and embrace of right-wing conspiracy theories, has left his personal reputation, and that of Tesla, tarnished.

The EV market has transformed, too. Tesla now has stiff competition from both auto-industry incumbents and new startups that launched electric pickups. As a maker of electric cars, Tesla had a first-mover advantage. But as a truck-maker, it’s following companies like Rivian and Ford into the market.

The Cybertruck will be arguably the most important vehicle in Tesla’s fleet. As Musk pointed out at the launch event, “the top three selling vehicles in America are pickup trucks. To solve sustainable energy, we have to have a pickup truck.” But as the company repairs the damage of the past two years, and its competitors lure potential customers, one big question hangs over the Cybertruck: Of the 1.7 million people who have made a reservation, how many of them still want one?

The odd Tesla out

The Cybertruck was always going to be a strange addition to Tesla’s lineup. Until its unveiling, the company had almost single-handedly popularized electric vehicles. It had done so not just by making excellent cars with long-range batteries but by making them approachable; Tesla’s technology is revolutionary, but its design is familiar.

Not the Cybertruck. It looks like an automobile from a 1980s sci-fi movie. Indeed, the last production vehicle made from unpainted stainless steel was the DeLorean, the car from the Back to the Future films.

“It doesn’t seem to fit with the way Tesla vehicles have been developed and designed,” says professor Dale Harrow, chair of the Intelligent Mobility Design Centre at the Royal College of Art in London. “It seems to go against their whole design philosophy.”

The truck’s eccentric looks appear to have caused manufacturing problems that the company is still wrestling with. Documents leaked by a Tesla whistleblower earlier this year showed that leaks, vibration, and excess noise have delayed its development. This may be because of the stainless steel, Harrow says. “You need a lot more pressure to press stainless steel than other kinds of steel,” he explains. “That extra pressure can create problems, like crimping along the edges of bodywork panels.”

On top of that, COVID-related supply-chain issues hurt Tesla’s operations along with those of other manufacturers of electric vehicles. China’s lockdowns shuttered Tesla’s Shanghai factory. Several of the company’s suppliers also suspended or radically reduced their production, and blockages at ports around the world slowed the supply of chips and steel.

The supply-chain problems have now eased. But pressure from investors continues to build. “Coming into this year, the stock had really taken a hit, and earnings and growth were starting to level out,” says Garrett Nelson, an equity research analyst at CFRA Research. “Investors are really looking for the next catalyst.” Tesla hasn’t launched a new vehicle since the Model Y in 2020, and orders for its older models have flatlined. Tesla needs a new vehicle to reinvigorate sales, and the Cybertruck is its answer. “They need this new vehicle to really drive volume growth,” Nelson says.

Courting pickup drivers

So will those sales materialize? There are several reasons to question whether reservations will translate into purchases. First, truck drivers in the U.S. are proving skeptical about electric vehicles. “There’s a general mismatch in the demographics of traditional truck drivers compared to typical EV buyers,” Nelson says. “