A month ago, The Daily Show was the odds-on favorite to take home yet another Emmy for Outstanding Talk Series. Now? Stephen Colbert’s Late Show has stormed into the lead—and the race isn’t particularly close.

Thats’ according to Gold Derby tracking data for the 2025 Primetime Emmy Awards, which now place The Late Show with Stephen Colbert at a 65% chance of winning, with The Daily Show trailing at 31% and Jimmy Kimmel Live! pulling a distant 4%. That’s a huge swing from July, when Colbert’s chances were just 26%.

The shift comes after weeks of headline-grabbing developments: CBS citing “purely financial” reasons for ending Colbert’s run, public speculation over the timing of the Paramount–Skydance merger approval and a $16 million Trump settlement, and an onslaught of celebrity support for Colbert. Jimmy Kimmel not only blasted CBS on social media (“Love you, Stephen. F*ck you CBS and all your Sheldons”), but he used his own Emmys FYC billboard in West Hollywood to campaign for Colbert instead.

If Colbert wins, it would be a first. In nine seasons, The Late Show has been nominated for Best Variety Talk Series nine times without ever taking the trophy, part of The Late Show‘s staggering 0-for-33 Emmy record under Colbert. The only show with more nominations and no wins is Better Call Saul.

Meanwhile, The Daily Show remains the reigning champ, having won the category the last two years. As producer of both The Daily Show and The Late Show, Jon Stewart will take home an Emmy either way—although, unlike Kimmel, he hasn’t yet planted a flag via billboard.

With Colbert’s curtain call coming in 2026, Emmy voters have a chance to hand The Late Show a parting gift—one that, if the odds are right, is suddenly his to lose.